Consumer Electronics Show (CES) 2012 will take place next week in Las Vegas (as usual). As I had an opportunity to attend a number of CES events in the past few years, I feel an urge to engage in fun but futile exercise of trying to predict the dominant themes of the CES 2012 – sort of “what’s hot, and what’s not”. Here is what I think will be Hot:

Robots: I expect to see lots of products which will be based on robotic technologies. At least one area where I expect to see a lot of them is Telemedicine/Tele-healthcare, plus some “robotic tele-presence types” Why? I have a number of friends who now works for the companies dealing with robotics one way or the other, and I see the same in the news.

Natural Interfaces: from Kinect to Siri, there are many ways to control [anything] using your voice or hand gestures. There were some natural interfaces (like using your hand as a TV remote) shown at the CES 2011. As a newly minted owner of Kinect I can say that I’m very impressed with technology, and I’m sure natural interfaces will be widely represented. The potential of natural interfaces is unlimited.

Ultra-light notebooks: This is the only way to compete with all the “pads” – provide fully-functional windows-based feather-light computers. Intel is supporting it, and so the manufacturers will come.

iPad Apps and iPad-enabled solutions: It sounds routine, but there will be lots of innovative solutions presented, all relying on iPad (or an iPhone as a very least) as an enabler. Versatility, well thought concept and ease of use make iPad an ideal foundation for myriad of potential applications – I wonder if it will be possible to count them all at the show.

Wearable computing devices? : I’m not sure at all that there will be any products presented in that category, but it sounds so natural that the thought is “why not”?

What will be Not hot?

All sorts of “pads”: there had being a big number of fiascos, such as TouchPad or PlayBook – there will be very limited (if any ) new announcements in this category. iPad continues to be an uncontested leader, and no Fire will be able to dethrone it any time soon.

3D TVs: These were hot when they appeared “en masse” at CES 2008, at least as an attraction. Now everybody knows they are possible and exist, and we only need to wait for the technology to improve and become more affordable. I really wonder how Samsung and LG booth will look like this year, and what all the TV companies will be pushing (we all know about LEDs as well).

Will see what will happen at CES 2012 – for now, I plan to take lots of pictures, and yes, to provide the detailed report afterwards.

Back in May, I was arguing about the true meaning of Telepresence. An analyst named Rob Bamforth from Quocirca wrote an article saying that the true meaning of Telepresence isn’t big screens and costly systems – it’s the illusion of being there – and for that he argued that low-lantancy is enough. I for the other hand, thought that low-lantency is only a part of the picture, and that for total immersion one must need eyesight level cameras and all the technical mumbo-jumbo.

Room Systems – anything less isn’t ‘Telepresence’?

But putting aside the exact semantics regarding the *videoconferencing* term called Telepresence, let’s talk about the general concept of tele-presence:
Lets say for a second that I own a business that relays heavily on out-of-office workers – and from all I concern, those workers are just as available in terms of communications, as people that work inside the office – isn’t that telepresence? Isn’t that the notion of having those people ‘here with me’?

From a business, and practical point of view – that is telepresence.

Cisco’s Cius – good for remote workers, but not as widespread as an iPhone

A few years ago, achieving that goal was costly and sometimes impossible. It is mainly because of the work of vendors such as RADVISION and Vidyo that this situation has changed. Scalable Video Coding is the key behind recent developments in both low-cost HD video systems and mobile video conferencing. This relatively new technology allows for high quality video communication over the unmanaged connections, such as the Internet. If the codec couldn’t have the ability to adapt to unstable bandwidth it would be impossible to connect remote workers reliably to a conference call. But now with SVC and broadband – it’s possible. These days, EVERYONE has smartphones that are capable of video communication – so wouldn’t it just make sense to turn them into a small video-conferencing device?One of the first companies to introduce a mobile client for it’s video-conferencing platform was RADVISION. When they released the first version the mobile client, it only had the ability to manage the video conference, not to be a part of it as a video client – effectively making an iPad a neat remote control pad. Today both iPhones and iPads has cameras and the latest version of Scopia Mobile is a fully functioning one – at last, the ability to connect to a conference call when on the go.

RADVISION’s Scopia Mobile – high-quality videoconferencing for iDevices

Just like the desktop client, Scopia mobile support video-conference with multiple participants (up to 28) and data sharing via h.329 (which is super important for out-of-office workers). But what’s really special about it that it just work well. IMTC is using Scopia internally for meetings and webinars, and in the latest meeting, the VP marketing of IMTC – Kfir Pravda, had to call in while driving, from his iPhone, over a 3G connection. That was a conference call with multiple people around the world, Kfir himself was in Israel!

3G-enabled conference with an iPhone – Amazing!

The call just worked. This is in my view, amazing, knowing how difficult it is to get a decent video-call quality from a 2-way call in a non-commercial system such as Skype (at least here, in Israel). In terms of features, again – that’s a fully functioning Scopia – and on the iPad2 it supports full 720P video.

I think that mobile video clients will create a revolution in video-conferencing, the form-factor is there (tablets), the technology is there (H.264) and the out-of-office situation will probably grew larger and require businesses to adapt accordingly.
Maybe Rob was right and the true meaning of Telepresence is just mobile video-conferencing that actually works.

Here on the IMTC blog we plan to compare a few mobile solutions over the next months, Scopia included. So stay tuned.

LTE Tablets – it just makes sense
Dan Jones from LightReadingMobile asks – Where are the LTE Tablets?
Dan summarize the expected models to hit the market soon, and theorize about the LTE iPad.

Lifespan of broadband technologies
A&T CEO caught a lot of attention when he said that “DSL is obsolete”. AT&T is one of the major DSL providers and for many US citizens living in rural areas DSL is the only broadband technology available.
AT&T Claims however that the comment was an answer to a question about state regulation and that the lifespan of a broadband technology went down from 10-15 years to about 5 years.
Examples?
3G was introduced around 2006, LTE began gaining momentum this year.
Docsis 2.0 was released in 2001 and Docsis 3.0 in 2006.

Samsung to sell 300 million phones in 2011
Samsung is fighting for the 2nd place in the mobile phone market, and unlike Nokia (that sold 461 million phones in 2010) – it’s major focus is on smart-phones. If they reach their expected number of 60 million smart-phones, they’ll pass Nokia smartphone sales. More on samsung plans and Samsung -vs- Apple -vs- Nokia at Gigaom.

Apple’s iMessage – Will it really change anything?
Rumor says that carriers weren’t informed of one of the latest updates in iOS (the iPhone) announced a month ago – the iMessage.
iMessage allow sending free messages, photos and files between all iDevices, thus posing a risk to traditional messaging with SMS.
SMS devotees will argue about it’s reliability.
Analysts might compare it to BlackBarryMessanger system (BBM) that existed for years and haven’t ‘killed’ SMS yet.
Will it kill SMS? Share your view by leaving a comment down below.

Reminder – IMTC MEETING
IMTC Annual meeting Will be held on Wednesday, November 3, from 10:00 – 13:00 PST (Pacific).
The meeting is open to anyone, Participants can connect via Scopia Desktop Cleint/H323 Video-Conferencing Device/Phone Dial-in.
Read more about it here.

Motorola reported an increase in its operating profit for the first time in more than three years
Motorola reported $3 million in operating profit compared to a $183 million loss a year earlier, most of the success is attributed to the companies smartphone line.
Motorola launched 22 devices this year alone and is looking to expand it’s business to additional markets.
Among it’s recent announcements, a camera-less Droid Pro phone aimed for the corporate market.
DoCoMo – The first carrier to profit more from Data revenues than from Voice or SMS
FierceBroadbandWireless.com posted an article about DoCoMo, the Japanese carrier that makes most of it’s revenues from Data -
The statistics are quite interesting – AT&T users talk for 622 minutes avarage monthly, compared to 136 at DoCoMo.
Among the statistics – Russia tops data usage at an average of 13GB a month, more than US and Japan.

Complete Coverage of 4G World 2010
3G4G Blog recommends reading the coverage of the Chicago 4G World show -
The links are: Day 1, Day 2, Day 3

UCStrategies Expert Debate UC Interoperability.
The analysts at  UCstrategies did a great podcast about Unified Communications - I’ts available here.

A similar question would be – Can Amazon introduce E-books to the masses?
They are doing it right know – But how?

Amazon Fulfillment Center - A thing of the past?

Amazon kindle is an amazing product, with estimate sales of 1.5 to 3 million units for Q4 2009 and after selling more e-books than hard-covers in July 2010 – It is E-book for the masses.

But is it the Kindle device itself that enabled all of those E- books sales? Amazon won’t tell -
Judging by the popularity of the Kindle iPad-application, it’s probably not. According to analysts the iPad already sold more units than all kindle versions together – and the kindle is on the market for almost 3 years.
If this trend to continue and Amazon’s kindle application will remain so popular on the iPad – The Kindle hardware itself will become less relevant as most kindle users will read their E-books on the iPad.

Kindle Application on the Popular iPad tablet

It might be possible that in order for Amazon to keep it’s superiority in the E-book field they must support the most popular tablet on the market – The iPad. And while not an E-book device it seems to be an adequate reader by itself.
Unlike E-book readers that remains a niche product – iPad or an iPad like device is something many of us will find at out homes and briefcases within a few years.

Cisco doesn’t sell E-books, with the Cius they expect to sell something that is even more of a niche product – Telepresence systems.
As with the Kindle/iPad situation, Cius might kick-start the engine, but I don’t think it will fuel the revolution.
Cius and Kindle are niche products, they do what they do well, but most consumers prefer one thing that does everything – With the iPad, it is possible.
At 499 USD, the lowest cost iPad cost only 10 dollars more than the highest end Kindle DX. The Kindle is still a monochrome E-book reader and not a high-end tablet with high resolution color screen suited for video.

Cisco Cius - HD Video-Conferencing Tablet

Cisco’s Cius can’t really cost much less than a modern tablet, as it hardware should be suited for HD video.

So the question remains – At a similar price point to an all-around multimedia machine, with many applications – Can the Cius really compete?

As Sagee Ben-Zedeff from Radvision said in his blog-post about Cius – Cisco isn’t targeting Apple with this move. But if we look further ahead – Cisco might gain more from going the Amazon way, and enabling iPad users to communicate with its Telepresence platforms.
While it’s true the iPad don’t have a built-in camera, adding one shouldn’t be problematic; it’s quite easy to speculate that as with the iPhone – a front facing camera will be added eventually.

We all understand the importance of Interoperability as in this case, it might help make a niche product a commodity. The ability to phone-call a Telepresence session makes Telepresence useful for meetings that are not only-management level.

The next step, as it seems, just like the kindle service (which is now, more than just Hardware) is not only connect Cius to every other device, but to connect every other device to the Cius ecosystem. If Apple and Cisco will understand the potential video-conferencing interoperability holds for both of them – both will profit.

So the time is finally on. Long-planned and even postponed (thanks to the Iceland volcano with the unpronounceable name), IMTC SuperOp! 2010 is taking place in a small town of Jesi, near Ancona in Italy, June 14-18. Big Thank You to our hosts RADVISION Italy, Aethra.Net and Telecom Italia, as well as our sponsors Tandberg, Polycom, Cisco and Vidyo!

What is behind the name “SuperOp”, which sounds both big and cryptic at the same time? SuperOp!, a.k.a. “major interoperability event” is an annual gathering of IMTC member companies, getting together to conduct interoperability testing of IP Multimedia Communications solutions over one big network setting. Our First SuperOp!, took place in 1997, and then continued annually. SuperOp!’s goal is to help engineers to advance the level of interoperability of their companies’ products. Latest and greatest solutions, quite often include simply unreleased [yet] versions of software and hardware, that are tested for interoperability with each other. One can truly look at the SuperOp! as a giant development lab, where experts from the competing (sic!) companies work together to improve their products.

Is SuperOp! still relevant? It seems that interoperability is a key word, coming from every corner of the communications industry. From newly formed alliance, UCIF, which promises to focus on interoperability of unified communications, to the just announced Apple’s iPhone 4, which will provide video communications based on open standards, interoperability is a key topic for the whole industry. And interoperability is the major area where IMTC made the difference from day one – iNow profile and H.323 Forum Certification Program, numerous improvements in mobile video streaming standards and technologies, adapted by 3GPP, 3G-324M interoperability testing plans used by GCF as a foundation for certification program for mobile video telephony, MONA standardization in ITU-T, SIP Parity (video control enhancements over SIP)  definitions which are now making it into IETF, and latest efforts in the GSMA VoLTE and Telepresence multi-streaming and TIP – these are IMTC contributions into making technologies better in the practical hands-on terms.

So what will be happening at the SuperOp! 2010? First of all, there will be a lot of interoperability testing done in all of the Activity Groups – video conferencing using both SIP and H.323 (thanks to the year long hard work of the SIP Parity activity group, SIP-based video communication is becoming a reality), IP video streaming in PSS Activity Group, mobile video conferencing using 3G-324M. Then there will be a traditional SuperConnect – all-participants with all the video conferencing devices, always done on the last day of the event. In addition to this traditional activities, this year IMTC will also conduct Telepresence Workshop, where industry leaders from Cisco, Polycom, Vidyo, AT&T and others will present current state of affairs in the Telepresence Interoperability and lay out the plans to make Telepresence ubiquitously interoperable (audience poll: who thinks it is achievable, raise your hands J). All in all, we are looking at a busy week, a lot of work and a lot of fun! IMTC is open for every company interested in improving interoperability of their products (and enjoying the process at the same time!), so … c’mon over!

A topic still very relevant today is the HTML5 vs Flash debate, fueled by devices like iPhone and iPad that lacks Flash support (and, apparently are more open standard oriented).

HTML 5 is still under development and the future looks very bright – Carl Ford (Crossfire Media) and Joe Hildebrand (Cisco) talks about HTML5 and the future of web video delivery.

Apple announcement of FaceTime, their new video telephony solution, included various standards: H.264, AAC, SIP, STUN, TURN, ICE, RTP, and SRTP. If this is the case, it would offer great start for interoperability, as the very same standards are widely used by the modern video communications solutions by majority of the vendors.

Here’s a short explanation on the role of each standard:

H.264 – one of most prominent video compression standards in use today. Used by every major and minor video communications solution today, from the mobile video to desktop to room system to Telepresence system. Has AVC (advanced video coding) and SVC (scalable video coding) profiles – AVC profile is what is widely used and interoperable today, while SVC profile holds great promise once interoperability will be established. Already used on the iPhone and other i-devices.
AAC – advanced audio coding standard. Widely used today in audio and video communications and has established interoperability. Used by iPhone and other i-devices.
SIP – Session Initiation Protocol – de-facto standard of IP Communications solutions, including both Voice and Video communications. Used by majority of video conferencing vendors, such as Cisco, Tandberg, Polycom, RADVISION and more. Also one of the core standards in 3GPP IMS ( IP Multimedia Subsystems) communications.. Highly interoperable, however, lacking dedicated definitions for IP Video Call Control – IMTC SIP Parity Activity group developed set of best common practices and use cases to improve interoperability of SIP –based video communications.
STUN, TURN and ICE – typically used together to support Firewall and NAT traversal functionality. STUN ( Session Traversal Utilities for NAT) allows to map internal IP addressed behind the NAT to the external IP addresses. TURN (Traversal Using Relay NAT) is used in rare cases where STUN doesn’t provide a solution. ICE (Interactive Connectivity Establishment) is used as an umbrella standard utilizing STUN, TURN, uPnP and others in order to find possible way to transfer the NAT and Firewall.
RTP, which stands for Real-time Transport Protocol, is used in Voice and Video over IP implementations to carry over real-time media and collecting of the statistics, such as jitter and latency, which in turn allows to implement better quality solutions. Today used by absolute majority IP voice and video vendors.
SRTP – Secure RTP, profile for secure RTP communication which supports encryption, message authentication and integrity. Widely used in both IP Video and Voice implementations.

We are looking froward for further implementations of this new technology. Things are getting very interesting in visual communication products.

—
More about Facetime:

• Facetime Technical Analysis on packetstan.com - Part 1(TCP, UDP, AKAMI, STUN, SIP), Part 2 (Sip & Data Streams), Part 3 (Call Connection Initialization).

Image via CrunchBase

Yesterday, Steve Jobs, Apple‘s CEO, Introduced FaceTime , a video telephony solution for iPhone 4. It is based on  open standards and integrated in next generation iPhone as a simple to use video telephony product.
Apple is known for its ability to revolutionize industries. iTunes, iPod, iPhone and iPad – all changed their respective markets.

We expect that visual communication, delivered in Apple’s style – simple, reliable and sexy – will do exactly the same for mobile visual communications as the whole.

The introduction of FaceTime by Apple is a vote of confidence in visual communication, and IMTC is certain that it will increase the uptake of mobile video telephony.

IMTC has the biggest visual communication expert pool, as well as rich history of ensuring interoperability and promoting adoption of standards-based visual communication technologies. From mobile telephony, to desktop video conferencing, to Telepresence, IMTC has the most active interoperability and testing groups in the industry.

As such, we are excited about yesterday’s news, and looking forward to support FaceTime adoption as an open industry standard.

Anatoli Levine, President,  IMTC

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• IMTC Recognizes Technology & Industry Leaders (eon.businesswire.com)

HTML 5 and  its effect on the industry will be discussed at IMTC virtual conference “2025″. For more details check this link.

Apple doesn’t like Flash. We know that already. Steve Jobs recently called Adobe lazy, and we all know that iPhone and iPad doesn’t support Flash. But the story is a bit more complex than that.

Apple’s opposition to Adobe is linked to HTML 5 – an open standard that would enable developers to use open formats to deliver rich media experiences. As such, this format is a threat on Adobe. And as Apple Insider analyzed in a great post about Flash vs. Apple:

By not putting Flash on the iPhone, iPod touch and iPad, Apple is creating a significant installed base of affluent users who simply can’t be reached via proprietary binaries like Flash and Silverlight. That has successfully shifted attention both to Apple’s own App Store platform for mobile apps and to the open web, encouraging developers to embrace standards-based rich web apps and multimedia delivery based on open specifications.

Yesterday, I quoted this post on my Facebook profile, stating that Apple are promoting open web standards, by supporting HTML 5 over Flash. This created an interesting thread of responses, that you can see here.

I’d like to better explain why I still believe that Apple are supporting open standards in comparison to Adobe. HTML 5 is not propeatiery format. It is not owned by a single company. Also, Apple played a key role in creating H264 format – one of the key events in online videos in the recent years. As such they are clearly more supportive of open standards then Microsoft (especially if looking at the browser wars) or Adobe.

Now, it doesn’t mean that Jobs help old ladies cross the street. Apple are supporting open standards from selfish reasons – they want to diminish Adobe’s power, and especially keep it out of Apple’s ecosystem. Also, they can support open standards, and still build a closed garden such as the app store.

You see, supporting open standards is not good, bad or anything else. It is, first and foremost, a business strategy.  But from some reason, some think that open is “good” while close is “bad”.

Do you think that Skype is evil? No. But they have a proprietary  protocol. They chose this strtategy as it got them to the market faster then going the standards route.

For more about this topic, from Skype, Cisco, Jabber and Radvision, check out this panel that I had the honor to moderate couple of years ago as part of my role in IMTC. We discuss the value of standardization as business advantage in details:

Originally posted at www.pravdam.com